> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.transitionzero.org/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

> This section provides specific details about Scenario Builder's model of Pakistan.

# Pakistan

<Warning>
  The Pakistan regional model is **uncalibrated**. It has not been through TransitionZero's [model calibration standard](/methodology/model-calibration), so results have not been checked against historical capacities, generation, emissions, or trade. Use it for exploratory analysis out of the box, and calibrate it for modelling work.
</Warning>

# Changelog

<Update label="v1.8.10" description="31 Jul 2026">
  Committed assets are now included in the Pakistan regional model. Committed assets include all assets that are under construction and have a clear date of commissioning or start date. The installed capacity of these assets is set to zero since they are not built before the model start year. See [future assets](/methodology/future-assets) for details on how committed assets are treated in the model.
</Update>

<Update label="v1.8.4" description="13 Jul 2026">
  The Pakistan 3-node model (K-Electric, South, North-Central) has been added. Note that the 3-node structure is a regional aggregation used in the results plots and the underlying model still runs at the individual asset/plant level. Users can drill into these asset-level results via the downloadable CSV file.
</Update>

<Update label="v1.4.8" description="19 Jan 2026">
  Support for Pakistan dispatch scenarios
</Update>

<Update label="v1.4.7" description="04 Dec 2025">
  Pakistan 1-node model added to Scenario Builder
</Update>

# Model scope

## Capacity Expansion

* Base year: 2023
* End year: 2050
* Spatial resolution:
  * National (1-node)
  * Regional (3-nodes):
    * North-Central (GRIDREGION-PAK-NC)
    * South (GRIDREGION-PAK-SO)
    * K-Electric (GRIDREGION-PAK-KE)
* Temporal resolution:
  * Low resolution (24-hourly and yearly) - 1 timeslice
  * Medium resolution (3-hourly and 3-monthly) - 32 timeslices

## Dispatch

* Spatial resolution:
  * National (1-node)
  * Regional (3-nodes):
    * North-Central (GRIDREGION-PAK-NC)
    * South (GRIDREGION-PAK-SO)
    * K-Electric (GRIDREGION-PAK-KE)
* Temporal resolution:
  * High resolution (hourly and single year) - 8760 timesteps
  * Available for single years between 2023-2050

# Data sourcing table

| **Input variable**                                                            | **Spatial resolution** | **Data source**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 | **Data standard** |
| :---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :--------------------- | :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :---------------- |
| Demand profiles - current                                                     | National               | TransitionZero in-house methodology ([<u>https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world</u>](https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world))                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           | Silver            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Renewables First                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | Gold              |
| Demand profiles - future                                                      | National               | Shape of the demand profile does not change in the future.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      | Bronze            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Renewables First. Profiles beyond 2044 follow 2044 values                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       | Silver            |
| Annual demand - current                                                       | National               | Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2024-2034 of NTDC                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 | Gold              |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Renewables First for 2024-2025. Annual demand in 2023 is calculated based on historical CAGR.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   | Gold              |
| Annual demand - future                                                        | National               | Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2024-2034 of NTDC (low scenario)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  | Gold              |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Renewables First for 2026-2044. Annual demand beyond 2044 is calculated based on historical CAGR.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               | Gold              |
| Renewable profiles - current                                                  | National               | TransitionZero in-house methodology ([<u>https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world</u>](https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world)) and Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2024-2034 of NTDC                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       | Silver            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | National values scaled by annual capacity factor per plant, reported by IGCEP 2024-2034                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         | Silver            |
| Renewable profiles - future                                                   | All                    | Shape of the renewable profiles does not change in the future.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  | Bronze            |
| Renewable potentials                                                          | National               | TransitionZero in-house methodology based on [<u>https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world</u>](https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world), [<u>Chu and Hawkes (2020)</u>](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544219323254?via%3Dihub), and [<u>Khan et al (2022)</u>](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34990677/)                                                                                                                                                                                                     | Silver            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Existing assets have their potential fixed at their installed capacity (non-expandable). Any new capacity is represented by generic assets, whose potential is calculated following [<u>TransitionZero in-house methodology</u>](/methodology/future-assets)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    | Silver            |
| Technology costs - current                                                    | National               | [<u>NREL ATB 2024</u>](https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/data)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              | Bronze            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | CAPEX is from [<u>NREL ATB 2024</u>](https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/data). FOM for most assets is from Renewables First, while FOM for hydropower, solar PV, and onshore wind is from NREL (chosen based on category, e.g. by capacity, resource quality, or capacity factor). VOM for gas- and coal-fueled assets is from Renewables First.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             | Silver            |
| Technology costs - future                                                     | National               | [<u>NREL ATB 2024</u>](https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/data)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              | Bronze            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | CAPEX is from [<u>NREL ATB 2024</u>](https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/data). FOM for most assets is from Renewables First, while FOM for hydropower, solar PV, and onshore wind is from NREL (chosen based on category, e.g. by capacity, resource quality, or capacity factor). VOM for gas- and coal-fueled assets is from Renewables First.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             | Silver            |
| Interconnector technology costs - current                                     | All                    | TransitionZero in-house methodology ([<u>https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world</u>](https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world))                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           | Silver            |
| Interconnector technology costs - future                                      | All                    | TransitionZero in-house methodology ([<u>https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world</u>](https://www.transitionzero.org/insights/cables-to-change-the-world))                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           | Silver            |
| Commodity costs - current                                                     | National               | Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2024-2034 of NTDC, [<u>NEPRA coal price 2024</u>](https://nepra.org.pk/tariff/Tariff/Notifications/2024/12%20Dec/SRO%202230%28I%29-2024%20Dated%2010-12-2024.pdf), [<u>Pakistan Energy Market Review 2025 of Renewable First</u>](https://uploads.renewablesfirst.org/Pakistan%20Energy%20Market%20review%202025%201.pdf)                                                                                                                                                                                                                         | Gold              |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Renewables First                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | Gold              |
| Commodity costs - future                                                      | National               | Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2024-2034 of NTDC, [<u>NEPRA coal price 2024</u>](https://nepra.org.pk/tariff/Tariff/Notifications/2024/12%20Dec/SRO%202230%28I%29-2024%20Dated%2010-12-2024.pdf), [<u>Pakistan Energy Market Review 2025 of Renewable First</u>](https://uploads.renewablesfirst.org/Pakistan%20Energy%20Market%20review%202025%201.pdf), [<u>gas price in Commodity Insight of S\&P Global</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/lng/021624-pakistan-raises-domestic-natural-gas-prices-for-second-time-in-four-months) | Silver            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Future commodity costs are held constant over time                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              | Silver            |
| Electricity cross border trade cost - current                                 | All                    | Assumed to match the [<u>electricity sale agreement</u>](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40340867/iran-pakistan-agree-to-extend-electricity-sale-agreement) with the neighbouring country                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        | Silver            |
| Electricity cross border trade cost - future                                  | All                    | Assumed to match the [<u>electricity sale agreement</u>](https://www.brecorder.com/news/40340867/iran-pakistan-agree-to-extend-electricity-sale-agreement) with the neighbouring country                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        | Silver            |
| Efficiency / Losses                                                           | National               | [<u>NREL ATB 2024</u>](https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/data)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              | Bronze            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Renewables First for almost all assets. Generic assets and assets fueled by biomass follow [<u>NREL ATB 2024</u>](https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/data)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   | Bronze            |
| Minimum generation level                                                      | National               | Technology specific, calibrated based on historical generation levels, and then linearly reduced to zero by 2035                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | Bronze            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Following values from national resolution                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       | Bronze            |
| Planned outages / Availability                                                | National               | Technology specific, calibrated based on historical generation levels, and [<u>NREL ATB 2024</u>](https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024/data)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   | Bronze            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Following values from national resolution                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       | Bronze            |
| Discount rate                                                                 | All                    | 5%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              | Bronze            |
| WACC                                                                          | All                    | 11%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             | Bronze            |
| Reserve margin                                                                | All                    | 12%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             | Bronze            |
| Power plant data (location, capacity, fuel, technology, start year, end year) | National               | Data served as initial and planned capacities from 2023 to 2050. This data is curated and validated by TransitionZero. The base dataset is from Global Energy Monitor with enhancements from "additional asset sources". See the following: [<u>IGCEP 2024-2034 Report</u>](https://nepra.org.pk/Admission%20Notices/2024/05%20May/IGCEP%202024-34%20Report.pdf).                                                                                                                                                                                                                               | Silver            |
|                                                                               | Regional               | Renewables First                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                | Gold              |
