> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.transitionzero.org/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# South Africa

> This section provides specific details about Scenario Builder's model of South Africa.

<Warning>
  The South Africa model is **uncalibrated**. It has not been through
  TransitionZero's [model calibration standard](/methodology/model-calibration),
  so results have not been checked against historical capacities, generation,
  emissions, or trade. Use it for exploratory analysis out of the box, and calibrate it for modelling work.
</Warning>

# Changelog

<Update label="v1.7.4" description="22 Jun 2026">
  South Africa model (uncalibrated) added to Scenario Builder, with support for
  capacity expansion and dispatch scenarios
</Update>

# Model scope

## Capacity Expansion

* Base year: 2023
* End year: 2050
* Spatial resolution: National (1 node only)
* Temporal resolution:
  * Low resolution (24-hourly and yearly) - 1 timeslice
  * Medium resolution (3-hourly and 3-monthly) - 32 timeslices

## Dispatch

* Spatial resolution:
  * National (1-node)
* Temporal resolution:
  * High resolution (hourly and single year) - 8760 timesteps
  * Available for single years between 2023-2050

# Data sourcing table

Several inputs are drawn from [pypsa-rsa](https://github.com/MeridianEconomics/pypsa-rsa), the open-source South African capacity expansion model maintained by Meridian Economics.

| **Input variable**                     | **Data source**                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     | **Data standard** |
| :------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | :---------------- |
| Demand profiles - current              | 2021 Eskom demand profile, as documented by [<u>pypsa-rsa</u>](https://github.com/MeridianEconomics/pypsa-rsa/blob/master/data/eskom_data.csv). More recent data has been requested from Eskom and will be incorporated when it is received.                                                                                                                        | Silver            |
| Demand profiles - future               | Shape of the demand profile does not change in the future.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          | Bronze            |
| Annual demand - current                | 2023-2024: [<u>CSIR Utility Statistics Report (January 2025)</u>](https://www.csir.co.za/sites/default/files/2025-09/Utility%20Statistics%20Report_Jan%202025_Final.pdf)                                                                                                                                                                                            | Gold              |
| Annual demand - future                 | 2025-2050: CSIR historical demand, grown at the annual growth rates used by pypsa-rsa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               | Silver            |
| Renewable profiles - current           | 2021 Eskom renewables profile, as documented by [<u>pypsa-rsa</u>](https://github.com/MeridianEconomics/pypsa-rsa/blob/master/data/eskom_data.csv). More recent data has been requested from Eskom and will be incorporated when it is received.                                                                                                                    | Silver            |
| Renewable profiles - future            | Shape of the renewable profiles does not change in the future.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      | Bronze            |
| Renewable potentials                   | [<u>DST Bio Energy Atlas for South Africa</u>](http://bea.dirisa.org/) (Hugo, W. (Ed.), 2016, Department of Science and Technology) and World Bank data, alongside existing and planned/target capacities                                                                                                                                                           | Silver            |
| Technology costs - current             | pypsa-rsa, AETOS, [<u>IEA World Energy Outlook 2024</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024), DEA, and [<u>NREL</u>](https://atb.nrel.gov/)                                                                                                                                                                                                      | Silver            |
| Technology costs - future              | pypsa-rsa, AETOS, [<u>IEA World Energy Outlook 2024</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024), DEA, and [<u>NREL</u>](https://atb.nrel.gov/)                                                                                                                                                                                                      | Silver            |
| Commodity costs - current              | pypsa-rsa and AETOS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 | Silver            |
| Commodity costs - future               | pypsa-rsa and AETOS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 | Silver            |
| Efficiency / Losses                    | AETOS and [<u>IEA World Energy Outlook 2024</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             | Silver            |
| Emission factors                       | AETOS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               | Silver            |
| Operating life                         | AETOS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               | Silver            |
| Minimum and maximum annual utilisation | AETOS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               | Silver            |
| Ramp rates                             | pypsa-rsa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           | Silver            |
| Storage maximum hours                  | AETOS                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               | Silver            |
| Discount rate                          | 8%, following pypsa-rsa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             | Silver            |
| WACC                                   | 10% per technology, assumed                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         | Bronze            |
| Reserve margin                         | 10%, following pypsa-rsa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            | Silver            |
| Power plant data (installed capacity)  | pypsa-rsa                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           | Silver            |
| Capacity expansion constraints         | Existing assets are non-extendable: capacity additions are set to zero for all technologies in 2023-2025. All technologies are extendable beyond 2025, except electricity imports and exports. Annual capacity additions are limited by an assumed growth rate of 20-40% per technology, with a floor of 2% of total 2023 installed capacity (flat per technology). | Bronze            |
