> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.transitionzero.org/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Commodity (fuel) prices

> This page discusses commodity prices, an essential data input for energy system models.

The cost of fuels used for energy production - primarily coal, natural gas, and crude oil for oil-fired power plants - is a key driver of electricity generation costs. Commodity prices are influenced by global supply and demand, geopolitical events, transportation costs, regional infrastructure, mining costs, and environmental regulations.

# Typical Value Ranges

<Note>
  These values are illustrative, and can vary significantly
</Note>

| **Fuel**    | **Typical Value Range (USD, 2023 Constant)** | **Key Factors**                                                                                                                         |
| :---------- | :------------------------------------------- | :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Coal        | \$50 - \$150 / ton                           | Quality, mining/transportation costs, regional demand, environmental regulations.                                                       |
| Natural Gas | \$3 - \$15 / MMBtu                           | Regional pipeline infrastructure, LNG trade, production costs, geopolitical events, demand from heating/cooling/electricity generation. |
| Crude Oil   | \$50 - \$150 / barrel                        | Global supply/demand, OPEC policies, geopolitical events, economic growth, technological advancements, pace of energy transition.       |
| Biomass     | Highly variable (e.g., \$30 - \$100 / ton)   | Type of biomass, local availability, processing, transportation, sustainability certification.                                          |

Data sourcing standards for commodity prices are detailed below.

# Data sourcing standards – commodity prices

| **Input Variable**        | **Model Type** | **Gold Standard ('Best in Class')**                                                                                                                          | **Silver Standard ('Good')**                                         | **Bronze Standard ('Publishable')**                                                                                             |
| :------------------------ | :------------- | :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Commodity costs - current | CE & UD        | Data owner data at the commodity exchange or asset level (e.g., mine-mouth coal contracts). Regionally specific import prices.                               | IEA commodity prices (e.g., from WEO) by region, by year.            | World Bank Commodity Outlook (includes recent past): global value per year per commodity.                                       |
| Commodity costs - future  | CE             | Detailed, scenario-specific projections from specialized energy agencies or robust internal analysis considering resource depletion, technology, and policy. | Projections from reputable public sources (e.g., IEA WEO scenarios). | Constant prices from the present, or simple trend extrapolation. *(Note: Future price methodologies are continuously refined.)* |